Tuesday, 1 July 2014

Ukraine's EU Deal: 'Not A Good Day For Russia'

Russian President Vladimir Putin

Beyond all the bickering over the EU presidency, a bit of history was being made at the summit in Brussels on Friday.
Three former states of the USSR - Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova - signed association agreements with the European Union, formally shifting their countries away from their Soviet past, towards a new, European future.
For Ukraine, this is the culmination of what so many fought for on the Maidan - the local name for the popular uprising in Kiev, which removed president Victor Yanukovych from power.
It was his refusal to sign this very same EU trade deal in November that brought the first of the protesters onto the streets, triggering a movement against a presidency many saw as corrupt and leading their country back to its old Kremlin masters.
The EU flag became one of the symbols of the protest - they flew it from the barricades and wrapped it around themselves - demanding what they saw as European human rights: justice, democracy, and the rule of law.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko (r), Jose Manuel Barosso (l), EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy (c)
Petro Poroshenko (R) and EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy shake hands
For all of the sentiment expressed by British politicians of late, it's worth remembering what the European Union means to so many of those beyond its borders in the east of the continent.
I remember one man telling me he considered himself middle class - that he had a nice apartment, a nice car, plenty to lose.
But he wanted a future for his children and grandchildren that would be fairer - that would not be subject to the whim of local bureaucrats or the ability to grease the right palms.
He was realistic about the short-term pain that would follow, but he said it would be worth it.
He wanted a 'European' future for his children.
Of course the reality will not be utopian.
The security situation in the East is deteriorating, Kiev insists, fuelled by the Kremlin.
A pro-Russian separatist guards a road checkpoint outside the town of Lysychansk in Luhansk
A ceasefire is supposedly in place in Ukraine
Despite the ceasefire supposedly in place, on Thursday night four Ukrainian servicemen were killed, five wounded, in fighting near Kramatorsk.
The United Nations' refugee agency says 110,000 people have fled across the border into Russia since the start of the year.
The national finances are in a parlous state: the currency has fallen 45% since January, the price of Russian gas is rocketing, and that's before Moscow has enacted the "grave consequences" its deputy foreign minister warned would follow.
For Russia this has not been a good day.
Mr Putin wanted Ukraine to join his own Eurasian Customs Union - watching this 'brotherly nation' instead publicly wrenching itself from the Kremlin's sphere of influence is deeply troubling.
This is not just about losing Ukraine to Europe - it's the prospect of the EU, and with it the old Cold War bogeyman of Nato, expanding East, right up to Russia's border.
Ukraine's success, or otherwise, will depend on Russia's reaction, and western politicians' resolve.
But Friday was an important day - "perhaps the most important day", said President Petro Poroshenko, in the country's post-independence history, "a symbol of faith, and unbreakable will".
He will need both in the months to come.

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